The Premium Club requires a Starting Bank of £2,400.00 |
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Remember our system is based around Dutching (Betting on more than one runner in each race at all times)
Remember that you back both selections to win.
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1: Your Daily Profit Target is £100.00, this never changes, it remains at £100.00.
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2: Your Daily Stop Loss is £600.00. ( approx ) |
If you are in a betting cycle and you find that the next race would take you over your stop loss figure, £600.00 then skip that race wait till the next viable race which is within your Stop Loss figure
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For Example |
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3: From the list select, as a minimum , the first six, qualifying, races, to create your portfolio.
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The number of runners should not be less than 6, or more than 14.
Always check for non-runners as they can often affect the choice of race for the list.
As a race with 16 runners, for example, could become a bet race with 2 non-runners.
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For Example |
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NON - RUNNERS |
If one of the selections in the Top 2 Rated is a non runner use the TAB "Runners today" to select the next rated as a replacement
Sporting Life is an example of where you can check
A flat race would have far greater preference than a long-distance steeplechase.
The intervals between races in your daily list should also be taken into account, as you will need time to assess
the outcome of any race when you fail to get a winner, and then have to follow the betting on the next race.
You should have for at least 10 minutes minimum between one race and the next.
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4: Use the internet, Betfair for example, to follow the betting on the list of races and to place the bets. |
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5: When you are following the market on any race (other than your original list races), first check to see if there are any runners that have a Starting Price which is equal to or greater than the examples below |
The statistics tell us that very, very few horses at 66/1 ( 67.00 ), 100/1 (101.00) or greater odds ever win a National Hunt race; (the figures are 33/1 ( 34.00) , 50/1 (51.00) or greater for Flat races).
If this reduces the number of serious participants in the race to less than the recommended maximum of 14, then you might add the race to your list, assuming there is time to deal with it and other rules are met.
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6: Calculate the stakes required to win your Daily Target Profit. |
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DO NOT BET:- |
On those occasions when a Selection is at very short-odds (less than 1.67 or 4/6)
If the other horse is also at a price less than 3.00 ( 2/1)
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DO NOT BET:- |
If the combined odds of both Selections are less than 4.00 ( 3/1), don’t bet.
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Combined odds are calculated as follows :-
e.g. exchange Odds
Odds on 1st selection 2.00 is then 2.00 - 1.00 Stake = 1.00
Odds on 2nd selection 4.00 is then 4.00 - 1.00 Stake = 3.00
Therefore the Combined odds are 1.00 x 3.00 = 3.00 anything from there and above is considered a bet.
If you are uncertain, don’t bet.
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7: In the event that neither horse won, add the stake money that you lost to the Daily Profit Target, calculate your stakes accordingly. |
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8 : Every time that you fail to get a winner, continue to accumulate the lost sums in the next bet, unless you reach your Stop-Loss.
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SHORT-ODDS BETTING |
The obvious problem with backing a Selection to win , for example, £100, when the available odds are less than one (“Evens” or 2.00), is that you must invest more than £100 in the single bet on that horse alone. Bearing in mind that you also have to cover the possibility that the other Selection will win, and that the short-odds horse may lose, your total investment in the race is greater than normal.
If neither Selection wins, then carry the losses forward, add another £100 profit target, and start betting on the next race in the list.
It is very common for the short-odds favourite (usually in a field of less than 7 runners) NOT TO WIN.
You should beware on race-days when there is a consecutive series of small field races (marked with an S), and your Selections contain a short-odds favourite. These circumstances result in a very rapid build-up of accumulated losses, so be careful to limit the betting risks.
The clue is NOT TO CONSIDER any Selection backed down to 2/1- on ( 1.50 ) (i.e. odds of a half or less), and even if the odds are betterthan that, you should consider the odds of the second horse, and where you are in terms of a losing-run sequence.
Often the best price you will get during real-time betting is as soon as the market odds are declared on whatever website you are using.
If the price is acceptable then it is best to place the bet immediately – it is unlikely to improve as the “off” approaches.
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TWO and THREE YEAR-OLD RACES - Non-Handicaps |
At the beginning of the Flat Racing Season, you have insufficient information to make a judgement on the performance capability of any two-year-old or un-raced three-year-old horses. Statistically, there is no point backing purely two-year-olds races until August, since the data prior to then is either insufficient and/or unreliable. Since un-raced three-year-olds tend to crop up at random throughout the Season, it is impossible to be hard and fast about when their ratings become reliable.
However, this is not to say that you should ignore these races in the early part of the Season, if you really must have a bet the Handicappers are fairly accurate, and so, too, is the movement in betting. In other words, the runners carrying the highest weights or a short-priced favourite in any race, might be worth backing,only under these circumstances, when they are the Selections.
As the Season progresses, trainers tend to experiment by entering horses in races of varying distance, and this factor contributes an additional level of uncertainty. In summary, it is preferable not to include two-year-olds races until August.
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To be considered as a bet it must fulfill all three of the following:-
1. Have 50% + of the field run before - If not? Skip the race
2. Does the race have less than 15 runners. - If not? Skip the race
3. Does the race have more than 5 runners. - If not? Skip the race
If so then it is a Viable "*" race
This Section is removed from the 1st of October
To be then be further considered as a bet the must fulfill three of the following:-
1. Is the Top Rated carrying Top Weight
2. Is the Top Rated a short priced Runner ( i.e 1st, 2nd or third Fav )
3. Is the 2nd Rated carrying Top Weight
4. Is the 2nd Rated a short priced Runner ( i.e 1st, 2nd or third Fav )
If so then it is a Viable "*" race
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SMALL AND LARGE FIELDS OF RUNNERS |
The annotations “S” and “L” are used to flag the fact that a race has either a “Small” field of runners, or what is considered to be a statistically “Large” field of runners.
Always keep an eye on the “Non-Runner” situation of races in your list for the day’s betting. An eight- or seven-horse race can quite easily become a smaller field, when the “Small-Field Effect” will often come into play.
Always keep an eye on the “Non-Runner” situation of races in your list for the day’s betting. An eighteen, seventeen or sixteen-horse race can quite easily become a smaller field (marked as a viable race with an asterisk “*”).
It is not just “Non-Runners” that you should watch when you are considering whether to back Selections in a field of runners which is just on there will not be the threshold between an “*” and an “L” – beware of withdrawn horses, in particular.
The way to spot them is when you are doing real-time betting, and watching the progress of the market on any Betting website – a price available about a certain horse.
Another factor that you cannot ignore is the “wisdom” of the market.
The statistics tell us that very, very few horses at 66/1 (67.00), 100/1 (101.00) or greater odds ever win a National Hunt race; (the figures are 33/1 (34.00) , 50/1 (51.00) or greater for Flat races).
If you are considering a race with 14+ runners, but two or three of the runners are being quoted at these outsider odds, then it is reasonable to remove them from the runner-total.
If one or other of the Selections appears to be such a rank outsider then you should discount it and substitute with the next-highest rated slection in the Forecast for that race.
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